Utahns aren’t quite as confident in the state’s economy as they were at the first of the year.
Consumer sentiment dropped slightly in Utah in March, marking the first time an economic indicator in the state performed worse than the nation since the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute’s Survey of Utah Consumer Sentiment started four years ago.
“We never like to see a Utah economic indicator performing worse than the nation, especially for the first time,” Natalie Gochnour, director of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, said in a statement. “Is it concerning? Yes, but with a caveat. It’s only one month of data. The prudent course is to keep a steady eye on consumer behavior and see if a trend develops.”
Utah’s consumer sentiment decreased by 2.9%, from 80.3 in January to 78.0 last month. A similar survey by the University of Michigan found that sentiment increased by 3.1% among Americans as a whole during the same time, from 76.9 to 79. Both figures are within the margin of error of their respective surveys.
The Utah survey contains seven questions regarding current and expected future economic conditions. Five of the questions are identical to those in the nationwide Michigan survey. The remaining two pertain to Utah only.
The questions measure residents’ views of the present economic situation and their expectations for the economy in the future. Data gathered from the questions are used to create Utah’s consumer sentiment index. The index score is calculated as the difference in the percentage of respondents who give a “favorable” reply and the percentage of respondents who give an “unfavorable” reply to the questions. Generally, a “favorable” response indicates being better off or having high hopes for the future.
Despite the drop in consumer sentiment in Utah, residents still have more confidence in the state economy than they do the national economy, according to the survey. The index regarding business conditions, whether the state will have good or bad financial times in the next 12 months, was much higher for Utah than it was for the country as a whole. The same was true about whether good times would continue during the next five years or so, or be marked with periods of widespread unemployment or depression.
The survey of 403 Utahns was conducted by telephone, with the sample proportional to the population of the state’s 29 counties. It has an error margin of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
A Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll in January found 52% of Utahs somewhat or very pessimistic about the economy in the coming year, compared to 43% somewhat or very optimistic. The survey also showed 87% said they were somewhat or very concerned about inflation.
In the survey, residents with lower incomes were more down on the economic outlook than those with higher incomes. Younger residents, too, expressed more pessimism than older residents.
Also, Republican poll participants were less optimistic than Democrats in their feelings about the economy in the coming year, 39% to 54%, respectively, and more concerned about inflation, 89% to 77%.