Provo's property crime jumped 32 percent in the first half of 2016 compared to the same months in 2015, giving it the dubious distinction of the largest jump in the country reported so far for that year, according to the FBI.
Of the 264 U.S. cities listed in the FBI's 2016 Preliminary Semiannual Uniform Crime Report, Provo registered the largest spike in property crimes. Only cities with populations larger than 100,000 that submitted their 2016 data before the publication deadline were included, and Provo was the only Utah city listed.
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Provo's violent crime statistics, however, did not rise appreciably during the period.
The property crime spike was driven largely by larceny/theft (up 30 percent) motor vehicle theft (up 35 percent) and burglary (up a whopping 56 percent). Burglary is defined as entering a structure to commit a crime, while larceny/theft includes items stolen from cars or yards.
Salt Lake City appears not to have seen a similar spike, according to the city's online crime database, but final 2016 numbers for individual Utah cities will not be available until early next year, according to Marissa Cote, director of public relations for the Utah Department of Public Safety.
The Provo Police Department confirmed that Provo did see a significant spike in property crime during this period. Sgt. Brian Taylor said Provo police responded to the rash of burglaries by "creating maps of hot spots, trying to figure out the trends, and shaping patrols to interdict them." He specifically mentioned underground parking facilities.
Taylor said it was unclear what caused the spike.
There is a strong professional consensus in law enforcement generally that there is a link between addiction and property crime to support drugs habits. One recent study in North Carolina surveyed female burglary convicts and found that drug addiction was a primary driver for most impulsive burglaries, and that 76 percent of convicts spent the resulting cash on drugs.
When it comes to Provo, Taylor emphasized that anecdotes and even raw data are not explanations. He noted that the city saw a significant increase in reported encounters with homeless people during this period but said it is too early to draw a line between those two points.
“I would be reluctant to say that homeless people are causing our crime problem," Taylor said.
Provo Mayor John Curtis noted that the city's challenge on homelessness is linked to the growth of opioid and meth addiction. "We've been watching what is happening in Salt Lake County," Curtis said of a spike in homelessness there. "We're trying to measure the impact on us. It just makes sense that some of that will spill over to Utah County."
Provo police noticed a dramatic increase in the number of incidents involving transient people on private property during 2016, Taylor said. From January through June of that year, there were 50 incidents. Over the next five months, there were 109 incidents, and in December alone there were 100 incidents.
The next closest city to Provo on the FBI list was Kent, Washington, which saw a 28 percent increase in property crime. Like Provo, Kent police are not certain what caused their 2016 jump. Kent police commander Jarod Kasner said the city lies between Tacoma and Seattle, and whenever one of those juggernauts cracks down on homelessness, the city of Kent sees a surge in its territory.
He also pointed to drug concerns. "The heroin epidemic is on the rise," Kasner said. "We think that contributes to the increase in property crimes. People are stealing to fund their addictions."
Kasner says Kent's spike was too high to be chance. Sometimes a minor seasonal spike, he said, might be attributed to a mild winter, with more criminals venturing out. But a spike of this magnitude, he said, could only be explained by a sudden shift in population demographics or some kind of organized effort.
Kent saw large increases in both burglary (38 percent) and motor vehicle theft (45 percent), which Kasner said the city sought to counter by patrolling hot spots, including commuter "park and rides," where a thief could be sure of a several-hour head start.
While the source of Provo's spike may not be clear, Taylor noted that "property crime is preventable."
Provo, the home of Brigham Young University, is widely noted for being easy pickings by criminals, he said, largely because the school's 30,000 students include many from out of state who assume they are in a safe place.
"If you want to find a $1,500 MacBook in an unlocked jeep, that’s what Provo is for in the criminal mind," Taylor said. "We’ve known that burglars will come to Provo for the purpose of victimizing students. We’ve worked hard to get our patrols where those crimes are most likely and engage in public education campaigns to get people to lock their cars."
Earlier this year, Provo police posted a video titled "Hide 'em, Lock 'em, Keep 'em" on its Facebook page as part of a larger campaign.
"We worry a lot about crimes of opportunity," Mayor Curtis said. "When people leave garage doors open or laptops on car seats, those opportunities arise. We also could do a better job assisting the police. Provo needs residents to be eyes and ears."