The first three days of competition couldn’t have gone much worse for the United States 3x3 men’s basketball team and Jimmer Fredette.
Fredette, the former BYU star, was lost to an injury on Day 2 — what’s being reported as a lower-body injury — and the Americans lost their first four games in pool play competition.
After two wins on Friday, though, there’s renewed hope for a now-shorthanded U.S. team — ranked No. 2 in the FIBA Olympic seedings entering the Games — to advance past pool play and perhaps reach the medal rounds.
That’s even though Canyon Barry, Kareem Maddox and Dylan Travis are forced to play every second of each game with Fredette sidelined.
To understand how the United States team could still advance, it’s important to get an understanding of Olympic 3x3 basketball tiebreaker rules and the current situation heading into the final day of pool play on Sunday, as well as how teams are determined for the medal rounds.
How the Olympic medal round participants are determined in 3x3 basketball
There are eight teams competing in both the 3x3 men’s and women’s basketball competitions at the Paris Olympics. During the ongoing opening rounds, known as pool play, each team will play every other team at the Olympics, seven games in total.
After pool play is finished, the top two teams in the standings will automatically qualify for the semifinals, while the bottom two will be eliminated.
Teams that come in third through sixth in the standings — more on how that’s determined in a minute — will compete in one of two play-in games on Sunday after the final four games of pool play.
The winner of those two play-in games will join the top two teams in the pool play standings in the semifinals, which will be played Monday, along with the bronze-medal match and gold-medal match.
Current Olympic 3x3 men’s basketball standings
Through six games, according to 3x3 basketball tiebreaker rules
- 1. Latvia — 6-0 (assured the No. 1 seed in the medal rounds).
- 2. Serbia — 4-2 (No. 2 seed based on its head-to-head win over Netherlands).
- 3. Netherlands — 4-2 (No. 3 seed based on its head-to-head loss to Serbia).
- 4. Lithuania — 3-3.
- 5. United States — 2-4 (No. 5 seed based on average points per game tiebreaker edge over France and Poland — as explained below).
- 6. France — 2-4 (No. 6 seed based on average points per game tiebreaker edge over France).
- 7. Poland — 2-4 (No. 7 seed based on losing average points per game tiebreaker edge to France).
- 8. China — 1-5.
What are the tiebreaker rules in 3x3 basketball?
The Olympics website describes the tiebreakers rules for 3x3 basketball as follows:
“The following classification rules shall apply to determine both standings in the pool and overall competition ranking.
“If teams that have reached the same stage of the competition are tied, the following steps to break the tie shall be applied. Each step shall be carried out only once in the tie-breaking process. If some or all teams are still tied after one step, the next step shall be applied to break the tie between those teams still tied:
- “1. Most wins (or win ratio).
- “2. Head-to-head comparison (only taking wins into account, and only to determine standings in the pool).
- “3. Most points scored on average per game (without considering winning scores of forfeits). For the purpose of standings calculation, a maximum of 21 points per game can be taken into consideration.
“If the teams remain tied, they will be ranked by (FIBA Olympic) seeding (highest seed first).”
Why is the United States currently the No. 5 seed over France and Poland?
This takes a minute to explain, but here it goes.
In a three-way tie between the United States, France and Poland heading into the final game of pool play, the Americans currently own the edge over both France and Poland.
Here’s how, going step by step through the tiebreaking process.
Tiebreaker No. 1 — “Most wins (or win ratio).”
All three teams have played six games to this point, and will play an equal number of games, seven, in pool play.
Advantage: No advantage. On to the next tiebreaker.
Tiebreaker No. 2 — “Head-to-head comparison (only taking wins into account, and only to determine standings in the pool).”
Here’s how the three teams performed against each other, with number of wins the determining factor.
- United States: Lost to Poland, beat France — One win.
- France: Beat Poland, lost to United States — One win.
- Poland: Lost to France, beat United States — One win.
Advantage: No advantage. On to the next tiebreaker.
Tiebreaker No. 3 — “Most points scored on average per game (without considering winning scores of forfeits). For the purpose of standings calculation, a maximum of 21 points per game can be taken into consideration.”
Here’s a look at how many points each team has scored in pool play, as well as their average points per game:
- United States: 110 total points, an average of 18.3 points per game in six games.
- France: 110 total points, an average of 18.3 points per game in six games.
- Poland: 100 total points, an average of 16.7 points per game in six games.
Advantage: United States.
How does this happen when the U.S. and France have both scored 110 points thus far in Olympic pool play?
There’s an important stipulation to consider that gives the Americans a one-point advantage — and it’s important to consider in 3x3 basketball, teams win once they reach 21 points or time expires, though a team can score 22 if they sit at 20 points and make a 2-pointer as their final shot or hit a winning 2-pointer in overtime of a game that is tied at 20-20 after regulation.
According to the Olympics tiebreaker rules, “For the purpose of standings calculation, a maximum of 21 points per game can be taken into consideration.”
In France’s first game, the French scored 22 points in a win, but only a max of 21 points each game are taken into consideration to calculate the standings.
The Americans haven’t hit 22 points in a game, and this gives them a one-point edge in the average points per game, 18.3 to 18.1 — for standings calculation purposes.
That makes the United States the No. 5 seed, France the No. 6 seed and Poland, because of its lowest points-per-game average among the three, the No. 7 seed.
What needs to happen for the United States to advance to a play-in game?
At this point, the Americans are no longer in contention for a top 2 spot in the pool play standings and automatic qualifying into the semifinals.
The U.S., though, have played themselves into consideration for a play-in game spot after winning two games Friday.
If the Americans beat Netherlands on Sunday, they will advance to the play-in round.
UPDATE: Going into Sunday’s play, there was a possibility the United States could have advanced, even with a loss. But once France beat China in the first game of the day, that possibility was eliminated.
Now the Americans need a win no matter what, or they are eliminated.
China is officially eliminated with its loss to France, and now France has one more win than the U.S.
In the day’s second game, Poland lost to Latvia, keeping Poland at two wins.
If the U.S. were to lose, however, and both Poland and the Americans finished with two losses, Poland would advance to the play-in based on its head-to-head win over the U.S.
If the Americans win, they would eliminate Poland and at that point, tiebreakers rules would determine their seeding.
Sunday’s pool play schedule
- France 21, China 12
- Latvia 22, Poland 16
- Lithuania vs. Serbia, 10:35 a.m. MDT
- United States vs. Netherlands, 11:05 a.m. MDT
Note: Once pool play is over and the final standings are determined, there will be two play-in games Sunday — the first at 1:30 p.m. MDT and the second at 2:05 p.m. MDT.