President Joe Biden withdrew from his reelection campaign over the weekend and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic Party’s nomination. Now questions arise regarding how she might perform against former President Donald Trump.
Polling data
The New York Times reported recent polls show Harris behind Trump by about two percentage points nationally. Harris stands at 46%, while Trump is at 48%. This represents a slight improvement over Biden’s performance in similar polls, where he trailed Trump by three points, with Trump at 47% and Biden at 44%.
When factoring in independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein and unaffiliated party Cornel West in the mix, Trump holds a six-percentage-point lead over Harris in a national poll. Trump stands at 43% while Harris sits at 37%, with Kennedy is at 6%, according to The Hill.
There is very limited sample polling across swing states.
According to RealClear polling, Trump is holding the lead over Harris in the swing state of Georgia by 7.5 percentage points. Trump’s current polling data shows he is at 49%, while Harris sits at 41.5%.
According to ABC News, “Polling at the state level is limited at this point, with no more than four polls conducted in the past month in any battleground state.” According to data reported by ABC News, state-level polls are not in Harris’ favor. “In our aggregate of this limited set of polls, Harris trailed Trump by around 3 points in Wisconsin (Biden trailed by about 2 points), by almost 5 in Pennsylvania (Biden was down around 4) and by 5 in Michigan (Biden was behind by about 2). This raises the possibility that she could have a harder time than Biden winning the Electoral College and thus the election.”