If the ground seems shaky under our feet, it’s because some of the biggest political earthquakes in our lifetimes have occurred over the last several days. We’re still a little dazed, but we share our thoughts.
The shocking assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump was shortly followed by President Joe Biden withdrawing from the presidential race. Now the attention of Utah, the nation and the world turns to the likelihood of VP Kamala Harris leading the Democratic ticket and whether she can defeat Trump. How will Harris do against Trump? What are the potential impacts for local races?
Pignanelli: “Politics is politics, but this is a human moment.” — Van Jones, political commentator
For generations, American schoolchildren were lectured on Greek and Shakespearean tragedies. These lessons became relevant as millions endured the publicized travails of an aging leader. Thankfully, this drama is in the final act.
A Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll (conducted before the infamous debate) pegged Biden’s support at 20%. Consequently, Democrat candidates outside dark blue Salt Lake City were nervous. The current relief and excitement are short-lived, as Harris’ survey results were 22%.
She ran as a progressive in the 2020 presidential primaries, and multiple lefty statements will be used against her. The Biden/Harris administration achievements — and setbacks — will flavor the election. The geriatric concern is now flipped to Trump. Also, how Trump reacts to her in debates and rallies will impact Utah elections.
Trump still wins Utah, but local candidates of both parties now operate in a different environment and must respond accordingly. In the meantime, voters are just hoping for elections devoid of literature analogies.
Webb: It’s a fresh start for Democrats, and they are relishing it. While Democrats were divided and despondent with Biden as their candidate, Harris’ ascendancy has united and energized them. There will be massive hype and excitement.
But Harris has to live up to the expectations, and there is a good chance that she will fail to do so. Changing horses in the middle of the stream will definitely provide a short-term boost, but will it last through Election Day? Harris was a lackluster candidate when she ran for the presidency in 2020. She wasn’t very likeable or substantial. She’s an arch-liberal from San Francisco, and it’s hard to see her winning the hearts and minds of average Americans in the heartland.
In Utah, she certainly won’t boost the Democratic ticket to victory, and her coattails will be short.
In his Republican National Convention speech, Trump had the opportunity of a lifetime to unify the nation and appear statesmanlike, modest and magnanimous. Did he pull it off? Did he improve the “complicated relationship” he has with Utah voters?
Pignanelli: The Republican convention was well executed with touching sentiments for Gold Star families, victims of the assassin and other Americans suffering. Vice Presidential nominee JD Vance articulated a new direction for the party. By Thursday evening significant momentum existed, especially in contrast to the disarray plaguing Democrats. Trump started well, but then broke the record for the longest acceptance speech in U.S. history. Although this did not hurt the outcome, the meandering dampened further popular support. Overall, the values emphasized in the convention will help Trump in the Beehive State. Republican candidates in swing districts may enjoy a slight bump.
Webb: After the assassination attempt and Trump’s seeming change of demeanor, I had great hopes for his convention speech. He really did appear to be more reflective and appreciative after he narrowly escaped death. He did appear to genuinely want to tone down his divisive and sometimes ridiculous rhetoric.
So the first 20 minutes were heartfelt, touching and terrific. But the praiseworthy start evolved into a dreadful (and lengthy) finish. That bulk of his speech was not at all a lofty and inspirational acceptance of the nomination and outline of his vision for all Americans. He simply repeated all the same old self-serving, mean-spirited hyperbole he’s spouted hundreds of times in his numerous rallies.
It’s a great American tragedy, both for Trump personally and for the Republican Party. He could have been a great unifier, coalescing support of most Republicans and many independents and moderates. We were waiting expectantly. But he managed to chill the good will. It is inexplicable that his personality prevents him from doing relatively simple things that would help his campaign immensely.
Gov. Spencer Cox wrote a touching letter to Trump praising his strength and courage after the assassination attempt and encouraging Trump to emphasize unity rather than hate, and extend an olive branch to voters who haven’t supported him in the past. Was Cox wise to send the letter, and will it make a difference?
Pignanelli: My admonition to those complaining about Cox’s statement is: Read the letter. A heartfelt request from the governor to a presidential candidate to convey compassion, humility and unite Americans should be appreciated, regardless of political affiliation. Of course, if the Trump campaign incorporates Cox’s suggestions, they win the election.
Webb: Cox represents many mainstream/moderate Republicans who were ready to embrace Trump given his seeming change of heart after an assassin tried to kill him. But Trump seems to have little interest in winning the support of the Spencer Coxes of the world. So the Cox letter was eloquent and earnest, to little avail.
Republican LaVarr Webb is a former journalist and a semi-retired small farmer and political consultant. Email: lwebb@exoro.com. Frank Pignanelli is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser who served as a Democrat in the Utah State Legislature. Email: frankp@xmission.com.